2022 Cowboys analytics roundup: Dallas takes a large step ahead

Closing week, within the first analytics roundup of the 2022 season, we famous that the Cowboys started the 12 months with nowhere to move however up. That grew to become out to be utterly correct, as Dallas got here out in Week 2 and pulled off the disillusioned with out Dak Prescott underneath middle.

No longer most effective did they win, however the Cowboys made strides in each unmarried one of the crucial analytics classes we observe right here. Earlier than we get into the entire numbers, only a reminder that each one DVOA metrics don’t but account for energy of time table; that can are available a couple of weeks, after a bigger pattern measurement of information has been accumulated.

Cowboys Potency at a Look

DVOA DVOA Rank DVOA Rank Earlier Week DAVE DAVE Rank
DVOA DVOA Rank DVOA Rank Earlier Week DAVE DAVE Rank
Offense -17.8% twenty eighth thirty second -6.7% twenty fourth
Protection -17.2% sixth fifteenth -4.6% sixth
Particular Groups 3.3% ninth 18th 1.5% fifth
Total 2.7% fifteenth thirtieth -0.7% nineteenth

Unsurprisingly, the whole thing were given higher right here. After Week 1, Dallas used to be thirtieth in general potency and now they’ve jumped the entire means as much as fifteenth. The protection and particular groups additionally each made giant jumps, whilst the offense used to be most effective marginally higher. Those adjustments from Week 1 to now are indicative of each how unhealthy the Cowboys had been towards Tampa Bay and the way neatly they performed towards the Bengals.

The DAVE metric represents a mix of the Cowboys’ preseason DVOA-based predictions and their precise DVOA grades thus far. Two weeks in and DAVE is recently made up of 85% preseason forecast and 15% precise grades. In having a look at that, the protection and particular groups at the moment are proper about the place they had been anticipated to be, whilst the offense remains to be lagging in the back of expectancies.

2022 NFL Crew Tiers, Week 1-2, courtesy of rbsdm.com

Taking a look on the Cowboys’ league-wide ratings through anticipated issues added (EPA) in step with play, the Cowboys have performed themselves out of the cellar. They’re nonetheless now not out of the transparent, score useless final in offensive EPA/play, however no person anticipated this crew to make a large soar in only a week, particularly with out Prescott.

It’s price declaring that Tampa Bay leads the league in defensive EPA/play, suggesting that final week’s dismal offensive efficiency most likely had as a lot, if now not a lot more, to do with the Buccaneers being just right because it did the Cowboys being unhealthy.

Cowboys Offensive Potency

Grade Rank
Grade Rank
Offensive DVOA -17.8% twenty eighth
Move DVOA -14.5% twenty seventh
Run DVOA 0.7% tenth

Despite the fact that the Cowboys misplaced this week, it gave the impression most likely that we’d see some enhancements of their offensive potency. Their DVOA grade of -49.0% final week – in addition to a passing DVOA grade of -50.0% – used to be useless final within the NFL through a fairly large margin. Score twenty eighth within the NFL on offense isn’t a successful method in 2022, however there used to be a ceiling on simply how a lot better this staff may get in a single week.

Probably the most certain construction, despite the fact that, used to be the working recreation. The Cowboys needed to pass clear of it previous than they sought after towards the Buccaneers, however that didn’t occur towards Cincinnati. They ran the ball extraordinarily neatly, too, and jumped into the highest 10 in speeding potency as a result of it. Dallas will want that to be the case so long as Cooper Rush is underneath middle.

Cooper Rush’s Potency

Grade Rank
Grade Rank
QBR 72.6 sixth
EPA/play 0.062 thirteenth
CPOE -5.6 twenty sixth
DVOA 5.4% twelfth
DYAR 47 seventeenth

Talking of Cooper Rush, he performed neatly. No longer neatly sufficient to create a quarterback controversy, however sufficient to safe the win. In some ways, Rush performed similar to he did towards the Vikings final 12 months, even supposing he didn’t flip the ball over on this one.

Surveying this number of metrics paints an intriguing image. It will have to be famous that Rush’s pattern measurement is part of the entire different starters, which makes it more uncomplicated for him to have the next QBR and decrease CPOE. That still displays his forged, however now not stellar, efficiency. His ratings in EPA/play and value-based metrics DVOA (cost in step with play) and DYAR (overall cost) again that up. Briefly, Rush is just right sufficient to win with, however now not just right sufficient to win the sport for you.

Cowboys Offensive Line Potency

Grade Rank
Grade Rank
Adjusted Line Yards 4.55 seventeenth
RB Yards 3.75 twenty third
Adjusted Sack Fee 7.6% twentieth
Move Block Win Fee 42% thirty second
Run Block Win Fee 81% 1st

Whilst Rush performed neatly, it used to be this speeding assault that truly made the offense click on. And for that, the offensive line did their fair proportion. They noticed an uptick of their adjusted line yards, despite the fact that their score is skewed reasonably through some statistical outliers against the highest; for reference, the Cowboys’ present adjusted line yards would’ve been the 8th easiest determine over the whole lot of final 12 months. Dallas additionally stays first within the league in run block win charge. That is their bread and butter at this time.

The move coverage, however, is extra like soggy bread and moldy butter. They’re useless final in move block win charge and twentieth in adjusted sack charge. Those deficient numbers are nearly totally the fault of Matt Farniok, who as soon as once more struggled at left guard. He used to be charged with permitting 4 hurries and 6 pressures; the remainder of the offensive line mixed gave up only one hurry and 3 pressures. Stay that during thoughts for on every occasion Jason Peters is able to pass.

Cowboys Defensive Potency

Grade Rank
Grade Rank
Defensive DVOA -17.2% sixth
Move Protection DVOA -22.3% fifth
Run Protection DVOA -10.8% twelfth
Move Rush Win Fee 52% fifth
Run Prevent Win Fee 26% twenty seventh

Now that’s extra love it. The Cowboys protection used to be forged towards Tampa Bay, however their vulnerabilities towards the run had been uncovered. That wasn’t the case towards Cincinnati, and this move rush additionally made lifestyles depressing for Joe Burrow. This protection is again into the highest 10 in potency, and so they did it with out notching a takeaway this week.

Let’s speak about Micah Parsons for a second: he’s off to an totally dominant 12 months. His 59% move rush win charge nonetheless leads all defenders; Von Miller is in a far off 2nd position with 46%. Parsons could also be tied with Myles Garrett for the league lead in pressures (13) and tied with Khalil Mack for the league lead in sacks (4). That’s with Parsons taking part in on 9 much less move rush reps than Garrett and 11 not up to Mack. It’s no surprise he’s the new making a bet favourite for Defensive Participant of the Yr.

Cowboys Move Protection

Goals Completions Final touch Fee Passer Score Allowed ADOT When Centered Air Yards Allowed Yards After Catch
Goals Completions Final touch Fee Passer Score Allowed ADOT When Centered Air Yards Allowed Yards After Catch
Trevon Diggs 14 9 64.3% 106.2 10.0 65 25
Anthony Brown 19 13 68.4% 111.7 10.2 110 50
Jourdan Lewis 10 7 70.0% 94.2 4.8 24 57
Jayron Kearse 1 1 100.0% 118.7 19.0 19 1
Malik Hooker 3 2 66.7% 91.0 17.3 12 12
Donovan Wilson 6 2 33.3% 2.8 15.0 1 8
Micah Parsons 0 0 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Leighton Vander Esch 8 6 75.0% 81.8 1.1 9 24
Jabril Cox 0 0 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Anthony Barr 5 3 60.0% 64.6 0.8 -5 19

Joe Burrow recorded a 48.4 QBR towards the Cowboys this week, which ranked twenty first amongst all 32 quarterbacks this week. That’s typically a just right signal that the protection did their task. That Ja’Marr Chase most effective had 54 yards on 5 catches could also be a just right signal. The secondary isn’t taking the ball away like they did final 12 months, however they’re additionally now not giving up a lot in protection.

One thing price declaring thru two video games is how just right the linebacker duo of Leighton Vander Esch and Anthony Barr had been. They’ve each been stout towards the run, and Barr had a large take on for loss towards Cincinnati, however they’ve additionally been nice in protection. Barr is recently giving up the thirteenth lowest passer score amongst linebackers and Vander Esch’s 81.8 passer score allowed is definitely beneath final 12 months’s determine of 87.9, which used to be a profession very best for him. The ones are very certain traits for this protection, which can wish to stick with it in the event that they wish to stay successful with out Dak Prescott.

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